Opinion

Buying abroad from the Gulf: look at the market before you look at the property

Gulf investors have an advantage that is easy to take for granted. They live in one of the most closely watched property markets in the world. A Dubai buyer knows which communities have a metro station coming, which developers hand over on schedule and which towers keep their tenants. That knowledge builds up over years and is a large part of why buying at home feels comfortable.

Buying abroad removes some of that familiarity, and Gulf capital is increasingly doing it. The UK and the US came out as the top international destinations among the Gulf real estate investment specialists surveyed by BLME in 2025. An investor looking at a city in either market can check the price, run the rental yield and look at recent price growth, and still miss the factors that decide whether the property stays desirable five or ten years from now.

The building is only one part of the investment. The market underneath it does most of the work, and the questions that read a market well are ones Dubai investors already ask at home.

Start with the people

Cities now hold 45% of the world's 8.2 billion people, and the UN's latest urbanisation research projects that about two-thirds of global population growth to 2050 will happen in cities. That growth is far from uniform. Some cities are expanding quickly while others are losing residents, so the pattern in any one place needs checking. Dubai sits firmly in the first group. It passed four million residents in 2025 after adding more than 200,000 people in 2024 alone, according to Dubai Statistics Center data, and analysts link that growth to professionals, entrepreneurs and wealthy individuals choosing to relocate. Each group needs a different kind of home, and a population figure says little until you know who is arriving and what brought them.

The same approach works in any city an investor considers. A growing population does not make every property in it a good investment. Employment, affordability and housing supply decide how that growth reaches individual neighbourhoods.

Follow the jobs

Dubai makes the link between jobs and housing easy to see. The Dubai International Financial Centre ended 2025 with more than 50,000 financial services professionals, 4,122 new jobs added during the year and over 500 wealth and asset management firms, up 22%. Few investors need convincing that a cluster like that shapes demand for homes in the districts around it.

Overseas, the useful habit is to look for the equivalent cluster. That means finding out which industries are growing locally, where major employers are setting up and whether a university is expanding or a technology, life sciences or logistics hub is taking shape. Details like these are often missing from the sales pitch, and they say a good deal about whether tenants will still be there in ten years.

The UK shows why it pays to check how many markets sit inside one country. There is no single UK property market, and the forces behind the North and the South East are different, so the reasons to invest in each differ too.

Greater Manchester is a cluster in the making. The UK Government's Northern Growth Strategy sets out an ambition to build the city region into a global growth cluster, with life sciences, advanced manufacturing and digital technology as priority sectors. The jobs data already points that way. Centre for Cities analysis published by Manchester City Council shows employment in the city region growing 19.7% over the past decade, against 13.9% for the UK as a whole. London is a larger and more established business centre, and the Greater London Authority's latest forecast has its economy growing 1.7% this year and around 2% in each of the next two, led by finance and business services.

Gulf interest has followed that spread. Nomo, a Sharia-compliant property lender, analysed Rightmove enquiries and put London at 23% of GCC buyer demand, Scotland at 19% and the North West at 18%, with lower entry prices and stronger rental returns outside the capital part of the attraction. Together, these places show why looking at a property in isolation misses the wider picture.

Look at what is being built

Dubai investors are used to reading infrastructure. The Blue Line is the current example. It is a 30km metro line with 14 stations, was awarded at AED 20.5 billion and is due to open in September 2029, linking the airport, Mirdif, International City, Silicon Oasis and Creek Harbour, with ridership forecast at around 200,000 a day by 2030. Experienced buyers there ask what a line like that changes in practice, such as journey times to work, access to schools and shops, and which communities become easier to live in.

Those questions apply wherever you buy. A new station, business district or university campus adds value when it changes how people reach jobs and amenities, and the marketing around a project often overstates the connection. This is where local knowledge earns its place. An international investor may know that a major scheme is planned. A local investor is more likely to know what it means for the street around it, and a good local partner can fill that gap.

Consider supply as carefully as demand

Strong demand for housing is good for property investors. But it becomes much more interesting when the supply of suitable housing cannot easily keep up. If developers can quickly build large numbers of comparable properties, new supply can absorb rising demand. But where planning constraints, high development costs or limited land make new housing difficult to deliver, existing properties can benefit from sustained competition from tenants and buyers.

In the UK, for example, Savills expects housing completions in England to remain below the government's annual target over the next few years, while its research also points to continued pressure in the rental market because of limited supply.

Investors need to consider these factors alongside demand. It’s not enough to know that people want to live somewhere – you also need to know how easily the market can create more places for them to live.

Don't confuse today's yield with tomorrow's investment

Rental yield is useful, and Gulf investors are used to paying close attention to it. A high yield can reflect genuine demand, but it can also reflect a property that is hard to sell, weak capital growth prospects, higher maintenance costs or a tenant market that is less resilient than it first appears. A lower starting yield can sit comfortably alongside strong rental demand, limited supply and good long-term prospects. CBRE's mid-year review of the UK market expects supply pipelines in the living sector to keep diminishing while rental demand stays strong, and it forecasts record living sector investment of more than £13 billion by the end of 2026 [12].

For many Gulf investors, overseas property does a different job from property at home. The investors BLME surveyed said they hold UK assets mainly for lifestyle, legacy, wealth preservation and long-term ownership, and most expected to hold overseas assets for three to five years. When the return includes capital preservation and diversification as well as income, the quality of the market behind the yield carries more weight than the yield figure itself.

Finally, think about who buys from you

Dubai investors are well placed to think about exits, because they already see how different parts of the market behave at resale. Off-plan accounted for roughly 72% of Dubai transactions in 2025, while resales of completed homes grew by about 8%. Each segment has its own buyers and its own timing.

The same thinking applies abroad. A highly specialised property can appeal to a narrow group of tenants and buyers, while a well-located one with broad appeal usually has a deeper pool of buyers when it is time to sell. It helps to plan for the practical side from the start. Gulf buyers in the UK increasingly hold rental property through limited companies, citing tax efficiency, estate planning and a clearer UK footprint, and specialist lenders, including Sharia-compliant providers, have become more flexible on pricing and structure.

Rules also change, and they belong in the investment case. Interest in UK private rented housing among the Gulf investors BLME surveyed fell sharply as the Renters' Rights reforms took shape, while warehousing and purpose-built student accommodation now top their lists.

Think like a local

A property is supported by people. People are supported by jobs and amenities, and jobs by businesses and infrastructure. Demand is shaped by supply and, eventually, the value of the investment depends partly on whether somebody else will want to own it. Price, condition, financing, tax, management costs and ownership structure all belong in the analysis too, and they read more clearly once the market around the asset is understood.

Dubai investors already read a market closely, from handover records to metro maps to which communities fill first. Taking that habit to a shortlist abroad, whether it sits in the UK, continental Europe or Asia, is the most reliable way to see past the brochure. Approach a new market as a visitor and the attractive properties are the ones that photograph well. Approach it as a local would, asking why people want to be there, and the investment-grade ones become much easier to spot.

Michael Leighton
Michael Leighton is the Founder and CEO of the API Global group of companies. API Global is the UK's leading property investment and development specialist, and was founded in 2013 with the mission to provide global investors access to high-quality, tailored property investment opportunities. As a seasoned investor himself, Michael’s goal is to deliver for his clients a passive income through a high-performing property portfolio. Today the company operates from 13 strategically located offices, including London, Manchester, Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore, and major cities in Africa, South America, and Oceania.