Some investors swear by timing the market, waiting for the lowest dip before buying and selling at the top. It’s a great theory. The problem? Real estate doesn’t work that way.
Property markets are not like stocks or crypto – they move at a different pace. Prices shift over months or years, not overnight. And while patterns exist, there’s no clear signal telling you when a market has bottomed out. Buyers often hold off too long, thinking prices will drop further, only to watch them climb again. Others jump in too late, paying more than they planned because they hesitated.
For those looking beyond their home markets, things get even trickier. Exchange rates, tax laws, and shifting regulations can all impact pricing. A good deal today might not look so great in six months. So, does waiting really pay off, or is there a better approach?
The reality of market timing
Real estate moves in cycles, but they don’t follow a perfect pattern. Some markets recover quickly after a downturn, while others take years to bounce back. Broadly speaking, a cycle tends to go through:
- Boom: Prices rise, demand is strong, and credit is cheap.
- Correction: The market slows down, some prices dip, and weaker investors exit.
- Recovery: Buyers regain confidence, demand picks up, and growth resumes.
- Growth: Prices rise steadily, setting the stage for another boom.
Sounds simple, but real-world cycles don’t follow a fixed timeline. A crash might take a year, or it might take five. A recovery might start strong, then stall. External factors like interest rate hikes or new government policies can shift things unexpectedly.
Take London. The city has gone through multiple property cycles, yet prices have always rebounded. Strong demand, ongoing regeneration, and a lack of available housing mean downturns rarely last long. New York and Sydney follow similar trends, with short-lived corrections but long-term upward trends.
So, if the market moves in cycles, why not just buy at the bottom? Because spotting the bottom in real time is nearly impossible.
Why investors get market timing wrong
The biggest mistake? Waiting too long.
Market bottoms only become obvious in hindsight. After the 2008 crash, cities like London, New York, and Sydney began recovering within two to three years. Investors who sat on the sidelines hoping for further drops missed out.
The same happened in Singapore in 2020. Prices dipped briefly during the pandemic, but within months, they were rising again due to limited supply and strong demand.
Another common mistake is chasing trends. If a market is making headlines, it’s probably too late to get in at the best price. This happened in Hong Kong in the mid-2010s when foreign investors flooded in. Prices shot up fast, but demand slowed once the government imposed restrictions. Latecomers found themselves with expensive assets and little room for growth.
Real estate isn’t like stocks – you can’t react instantly. Transactions take weeks, sometimes months. By the time you finalise a deal, market conditions might have already changed. Many investors in the UK expected property prices to plunge in 2023 due to rising interest rates. Some held off, waiting for a big drop that never came. In cities like Manchester and Birmingham, demand remained strong, and prices stayed firm.
Trying to predict the perfect moment to buy usually leads to hesitation – and missed opportunities.
A smarter approach
Instead of trying to time the market, focus on where and what you buy.
Some factors create better buying windows:
- Currency advantages – If your home currency is strong against the local market, it might be a good time to buy.
- Undersupplied markets – Areas where demand outstrips supply tend to recover quickly from downturns.
- High rental demand – Cities with strong job markets and infrastructure investment typically see steady long-term growth.
- Stable regulations – Investor-friendly policies and transparent property laws reduce risk.
The UK market in 2021 is a good example. Mortgage rates were at record lows, and prices had softened after lockdowns. Investors who bought at this point saw strong capital appreciation within two years. London, Birmingham, and Manchester all experienced price gains driven by housing shortages and rising rental yields.
By contrast, those who held off in 2023 expecting a major correction saw many prime areas remain stable – or climb further. While some locations dipped slightly, the big crash never came.
Rather than waiting for the lowest price, investors who focus on strong fundamentals tend to do better.
Timing vs. long-term strategy
Trying to time the real estate market perfectly is a difficult game. Prices move in cycles, but predicting exact highs and lows is rarely straightforward.
Long-term value boils down to market selection, asset quality, and investment structure rather than chasing short-term price dips. Properties in supply-constrained cities, economic hubs, and areas with strong rental demand tend to perform well over time, regardless of short-term corrections.
That said, market conditions can create temporary buying windows. Interest rate cycles, currency movements, and government policy shifts can all influence when and where investment makes the most sense. But rather than relying on timing alone, investors who take a fundamentals-driven approach will always be better positioned for more stable and predictable returns.
Real estate isn’t about catching the perfect moment. It’s about buying in the right market, with the right fundamentals, at the right time for your investment goals.
