Saudi Aramco's net profit is projected to reach SAR 119.6 billion (USD 31.85 billion) in Q2 2026 – a 40% year-on-year increase – though marginally lower quarter-on-quarter, according to a research note from AlJazira Capital.
Revenue is forecast to climb 12.6% year-on-year to SAR 458.5 billion, despite a 1.9% quarterly decline, as Brent crude averaged USD 96.7 per barrel in the quarter – a 21.5% rise on Q1. Aramco's realised crude oil price is estimated at USD 99.6 per barrel, up nearly 30% quarter-on-quarter.
The key constraint on earnings was volume: total hydrocarbon production is expected to have fallen sharply to 10.0 million barrels of oil equivalent per day from 12.6 mmboed in Q1, as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz disrupted upstream export flows, with Aramco redirecting shipments from east to west coast to partially offset the impact. Upstream revenue is forecast to contract 5.7% quarter-on-quarter to SAR 193.5 billion, while downstream revenue held relatively stable at SAR 263.2 billion on improved refining margins.
AlJazira Capital maintained an Overweight rating on Aramco stock with a target price of SAR 29.6 per share, projecting average crude prices for the full year 2026 approximately 25% higher year-on-year.
Gulf Economist Staff Writer